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Banking on Deposits That Can Leave

Post 2/4 of the No Gut Feelings Bank series. How much maturity transformation does an SA deposit base license, and is the behaviou...

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What Is a Deposit Actually Worth When Rates Move?

Post 1/4 of the No Gut Feelings Bank series. I build a behavioural model of non-maturing deposits - current accounts, notice, fixe...

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Do Macro Variables Help Forecast the Yield Curve? Three Honest Experiments

A follow-up to the yield-curve forecasting post. I add inflation, the repo rate, the rand and the VIX to the forecasts in three wa...

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Easy Equities TFSA ETF Analytics

Interactive leaderboards, price history, risk metrics, top holdings and index rules for every ETF available on the Easy Equities T...

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Forecasting South African Government Bond Yields

I raced about twenty forecasting models against each other on SA government bond yield buckets, and the humble random walk turned ...

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ML-Driven TFSA ETF Portfolio Optimization for EE

I built a LightGBM pipeline to pick ETFs for my EE TFSA and it beats the JSE Top 40 by 6–9% annualised. Over-engineered retirement...

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Balance Sheet Optimisation Under South African Regulatory Constraints

A worked Linear Programming example for the bank treasury function using SARB Basel III requirements (LCR, NSFR, CET1). Includes f...